CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-01-29T04:38ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28848/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M6.8 class flare from AR 13559, best observed in SDO AIA 131. This eruption is also observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211 with subsequent field line movement, an EUV wave, and post eruptive arcades following the flare visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Possible arrival/glancing blow signature of arrival of this CME at L1: enhancement in magnetic field components with an increase in B_total from 3.6 nT to over 7 nT, reaching a maximum near 8 nT. Rotation of all three magnetic field components. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 390 km/s to 440 km/s and increases in temperature and density (to ~5nT) were also observed.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-01T05:18Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-31T14:17Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 1278.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 739.554 Acceleration: -0.354928 Duration in seconds: 207579.73 Duration in days: 2.4025432 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -0.35 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 665.9 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 31/01/2024 Time: 14:17 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 28.65 hour(s)
Difference: 15.02 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2024-01-31T00:39Z
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